Yooooo I Have Literally Nothing To Add Other Than The Fact That This Analysis And Theory Is One Of The

yooooo i have literally nothing to add other than the fact that this analysis and theory is one of the best i’ve ever seen in my life, *chefs kiss*

OKAY OKAY OKAY  SO

NEW THOUGHT!!! WHAT IF THE PRISON IS FOR TOMMY???

STICK WITH ME HERE AND STRAP IN BOYS I’M USING MY BRAINCELLS FOR THIS ONE

(tw for suicide/mentions of suicide and manipulation!!)

So!!!! What do we know about this prison? It’s nearly impossible to escape from given the incredibly complex system (we appreciate Sam in this house) that it’s apart of. We’re talking:

Teleporting guards

A card system 

A sole portal exit/entrance 

Miner fatigued obsidian blocks 

And probably even more

It’s been said that this prison was made for someone really capable, which has led a lot of people to think it could be for Techno, Philza, or even Dream himself. 

But, thinking about it, what has been Dream’s priority lately?  Tommy. 

Making sure he has control over Tommy.  Tommy’s been in exile for a bit more than a week now and undoubtedly the person who’s kept him company the most would be Dream, and it shows. Tommy’s aggressive, confident exterior has sort of melted away since Dream’s been there. He went from adamantly fighting back against Dream burning his things to willingly giving his armor to him before even being asked.  When Tommy was saying he didn’t have any friends left, Dream popped in saying how he was still there.  When Tommy had his beach party, Dream was the only person to show up, making Tommy even trust him even more.  But why put in all the effort?

Keep reading

we all know quackity’s stream is gonna be kind of meme-y as opposed the the relative seriousness to tommy’s streams in exile, but thinking about it, this is the first outsider perspective we have of tommy’s exile! like we’ve seen bad and puffy stream giving him presents, but never when tommy is actually there.

this stream is almost like an opportunity to see if the people in lmanburg and other places are able to identify what exactly is happening to tommy, and maybe quackity’ll be that person, considering the kind of bad terms he and dream are on.

quackity knows manipulation because he was with schlatt, if anyone could figure it out i would hope it would be him

okay so i’ve been in the speedrunning discord for a few weeks now, and one thing i’ve taken away from it is that pretty much everyone in there seems to hate dream. this obviously means that when the data was put out, everyone there was super happy, so i didn’t really chat that much because i knew if i even tried to state my opinion, i would be immediately yelled at for being a “dream stannie” and my opinion would be completely disregarded.

now i’ve mentioned this before, i’m shit at math. therefore i feel the only possible way for me to test dream’s pearl luck is to trade the exact amount of gold he did to count the amount of pearl trades i receive, but do several sets of those trades to make sure i’m not just using one sample (which would take me hours probably) and then kill the exact amount of blazes he did accounting for the amount he killed with a looting sword, and do that a few times just to see how much an active sample would change the numbers as presented by the document.

like i can’t do the shit the verifiers did because i don’t understand stats, but maybe accounting for the rng by doing the trades myself will show a different probability than what their stream samples have shown? idk how the math works so maybe we’d end up with the same shit, but at least i’d know for sure then

i’m not decided if i’ll actually do this because it’d take a lot of time, but i might if i find the time to dedicate the hours to. if i did do it i’d probably turn off my optifine too, just to make sure i didn’t mess with any of the mob spawn stuff that i recently learned it messed with XD. maybe i’ll record it, or like livestream the hours it’ll take me lmfao, might be worth it tbh

maybe i’d get another friend to help me or something, but that’s literally the only way i think i could conceivably check the statistics because i don’t understand the math that they used 😭

I AM TALKING ABOUT THE NEWS OF DREAM’S SPEEDRUN AND ITS ILLEGITIMACY AS DECLARED BY THE VERIFIERS: MORE SO, WHY EXACTLY DREAM IS SO ANGRY ABOUT IT

i don’t think it’s really about the run being taken down tbh (like come ON. 14th place? not worth).

if i were called a cheater and then with no warning from the mods of the discord to be prepared for any backlash, have a 30 page potentially biased paper (purely from their usage of pronouns like we, you, us, etc that is frowned upon for statistical analysis papers they claimed it was, i can’t do math so i’m looking purely on the written side of things) and a video posted about me, i would be pissed as well.

the entire conduct of the mod and verifier teams throughout this ordeal has been questionable, but both sides have been increasingly childish and need to behave like the adults i assume they are

i don’t think dream has a motive to cheat because he has a huge standing in social media and is basically minecraft king right now, so i’m siding with him for now because there is no undeniable proof of the cheating despite the fact he literally live-streamed the run, but i’m subject to change my opinion if further evidence comes about :)

dream won gaming pog!!

Yeah, I'm really interested to see what Dreams response is. I think it's interesting that he's said that he is planning on hiring actual mathematicians. If that actually happens I think it'll be interesting what they find. Also, I'm not entirely sure who did the math for the speedrun verification team, at first it seemed like they did it themselves but they've since said that "verifiers hold no part in the Dream investigation."

Honestly my biggest problem with the investigation though still has nothing to do with the numbers; no other 16th place run would be treated like this and regardless of the result I think the investigation was brought on by the speedrun community not liking Dream. (Although I also don't like the argument that being too lucky means cheating, largely because then there needs to be a way to decide if someone is cheating vs. just getting lucky)

i’m definitely excited for what he plans, as in the discord he did say he would have irrevocable evidence! if that’s true, hopefully this can be all resolved like adults.

on the topic of it being a 16th place run, they started this investigation when it was number 5 on the leaderboards, so i can see why they’d investigate it when the pearl drops were dropped into conversation (however because of the bias i’ve seen in the discord from general dislike of dream it’s hard to believe that at least some of the mods or verifiers haven’t developed this dislike from the constant words said against him. environment is a tool to the perspective of man, after all). it being dragged out for this long is kinda crazy to me but i’m assuming it’s because they had to sift through hours of livestreams.

too lucky for it to be possible is kind of a strange argument when you really think about it, because the probability is still there, but i guess the argument exists because of the numbers being so high and damnable for the opposite party.

all we gotta do is wait, and i’m hoping it’s resolved without too much insulting and rudeness from either side :D