Spoilers For DRDT Ch2 Ep11

Spoilers for DRDT ch2 ep11

It's been a while since I made one of these.

Chapter 2 Part 2 - Bingo Card

Based on @a-star-that-burns-brightly post. Thank you for the idea. : )

These are based (mostly) on my own personal predictions combined with some other popular theories. Please feel free to use as you wish; please credit if posted.

CW: Suicide Mention

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chapter 3 prediction

My first class today was a math test and in my second class the school was on fire let's gooooo 🔥🔥🔥

Charwhit keeping each other company after finding out their secrets

EP 13 Revision: Trying to Solve the DRDT CH2 Murder

Back in my bullshit I go! So, episode 13, what a chapter! Really made my old murder theory seem unlikely, so let’s see if there are any convincing alternatives, shall we? As a heads up, most of my theory actually remains the same, a lot of this is just me going over some other possible alternatives. Although I’m also going to talk about what happened to Ace as well, and that theory has changed quite a bit.

Spoilers up to CH2 EP13. CW Murder, hanging, strangulation, asphyxiation, Eden!Culprit, Ace!Culprit, Nico!AceAttacker, blood, mention of Xander losing his eye.

You don't exactly need to know what my previous theory was to understand this post past the “Murder Method” title, but it might help, so here's Levi!Accomplice anyways. Speaking of:

How Dead We Talking?

Levi: In that case, we should be suspicious of those who *do* have an alibi in the evening but not in the morning.

Levi: Then, did the killer perhaps use some sort of mechanism to hang Arei?

These lines in particular, especially combined with some other dubious lines in the past, make me very doubtful Levi!Accomplice is the right answer. An obvious presumption of this theory is that Levi would want Eden to win the trial; if he didn’t, he’d just call her out and explain everything. Even if he just gave her the fish, I think he’d have said that by now. But these lines have Levi actively pointing people towards the right culprit (if it’s Eden) or the right method. You could read this as him choosing to betray Eden after Hu’s speech, yet still hesitant to fully reveal his involvement. However, given he willingly admitted to his secret because he considers honesty good and wants to be a good person, it seems weird that he’d keep being disingenuous and hiding evidence from the cast.

There’s also this statement:

Levi: But it is a “good” thing to make sure someone else doesn’t die, even if I personally do not care about the outcome.

Of course, you could read this as him wanting to save the life of the person he considers the “most good,” that being Eden, but the problem is he also admitted to seeing other participants (such as David) as good. I’m not fully opposed to stretching dialogue to fit certain theories (I still believe venus-is-thinking’s explanation of Eden’s breakdown after the Arturo story in the trial works well enough not to disqualify Eden as a potential culprit, for example), but I have my limits. A lot of what Levi said in his speech and beyond reads a bit too strangely for me to really consider Levi!Accomplice as likely as I once did.

Is it 100% dead? No. There is the ticking clock motif in the background, and some of Eden’s reactions to Levi’s speech could be read as pointing towards this, but I feel like that might just be a “foils” thing? Like, the person with quote unquote “bad” thoughts that does good things, contrasted with the person with quote unquote “good” thoughts that does a pretty bad thing (if Eden killed Arei).

(Disclaimer: there’s no such thing as “good” and “bad” thoughts and feelings, it’s your actions that determine whether you’re good or not, Levi’s a good person even if he has low empathy, you know this)

In any case, while there’s a world out there where Levi!Accomplice is still the right answer, just in case, let me throw out a few more theories on how this could work. Unfortunately, I can’t come up with any answer that solves every mystery of the case as well as Levi!Accomplice does, which is why I still consider it possible, but I’ll do my best.

Murder Method - Hey, I Wasn't That Wrong!

The things discussed in this chapter halfway confirmed a lot of what I speculated about the method itself (assuming Teruko isn’t wrong, but I feel the trial would flow a bit weird if she presents one relatively good theory and then backtracks). The killer used the spinny thing as a pulley to pull Arei up to the ceiling, using the rafters and the seesaw (yo the seesaw WAS important, Korekiyo fans winning!) to set up the mechanism. After Arei was high enough, they tied the rope to one of the handlebars so it would tense before Arei hit the ground, and let go. To make sure her neck would break instantly, they also attached water jugs to her in order to increase her effective weight. To avoid the rope sliding off the handlebars, they used tape with a sandpaper-y texture that makes it easier to grip. In other words, the tape from the gym. It is also implied the killer splashed Arei with water, either accidentally or to hide her body temperature.

I got… most of this right. I didn't catch the seesaw thing, nor the splashing with water thing, and I didn't fully realize the purpose of the tape, plus I thought the killer would have used a second piece of rope attached to the swing set as a "stopper" instead of tying one long piece of rope… but the main pieces are there!

The last few details haven't been discussed yet, but I still think they're solid. To get the rope over the rafters, they tied one end to something like the ball of clothes (or any equivalent) and threw it over the said rafters. On the way, they accidentally hit the lights, displacing them and causing it to break and start flickering.

(How many posts can I fit this image into? Watch it be wrong, too)

The rest is simple. Arei's wrists (and possibly feet) were bound by the tape after something happened to scuff the floor. That's actually a sticking point of the old theory: figuring out exactly how those specific scuff marks would form.

I've always just taken them as evidence of some kind of struggle, but how do they form? Well, they look like either tire tracks (which I'm gonna assume are impossible) or, perhaps, clawing at the floor.

Since the old "struggle" no longer applies, I'm going to take a shot in the complete dark and speculate, with practically no evidence, that the struggle is: The killer managed to tackle Arei to the ground from behind, Arei falling stomach first, and either strangled her with the rope or smothered her with the ball of clothes (because evidently I just like to throw this thing at any unsolved mysteries I can, sometimes literally) until she lost consciousness, but no more. Arei clawed at the floor while this was happening, generating the scuff marks.

(I am assuming the rope is long enough to do this even with the mechanism already set up, which it should be)

Now, you might be thinking that there’s a method I’m leaving out, that being the turpentine. Since DRDT’s turpentine can apparently knock people out, isn’t it possible she was knocked out with it?

Well, actually. If the method Teruko describe is accurate (which for the purposes of this post, I’ll assume it is), Arei cannot have been knocked out with turpentine.

Why? Because of the marks on her wrists. The ones that imply they were bound by tape at some point.

Why is this a problem? Simply put, turpentine’s too good to need the tape around Arei’s wrists. In the Ace case, Ace was unconscious for quite a while; however long it took to set up the murder mechanism, and a little after Eden and Teruko entered the room. Translated to Arei, if the killer knocked her out with turpentine in the playground, they would easily be able to put the noose around her neck and do the pulley trick before she woke up, making the tape redundant.

This leaves us with three options if Arei was knocked out with turpentine. Either Arei was knocked out outside the playground, at which point you’d need a different explanation for the scuff marks on the floor; the killer didn’t know how long turpentine induced unconsciousness lasted; or the killer was extra cautious for some reason. Notably, those last two would imply the killer is different from the Ace attacker, since Ace’s wrists were never bound as far as we can tell, and at that point you need to explain how they got the turpentine in the first place.

Compare that to unconsciousness induced by asphyxiation. Although it could take up to two minutes to knock Arei unconscious, consciousness is regained around ten seconds after pressure is relieved in cases of asphyxiation. That’s too quick for comfort, since if Arei regains consciousness before the rope takes her off the floor, she would easily be able to slide the noose out of her neck.

That means the killer would need to tie her hands to make sure they could pull off the pulley trick without issues, which explains the marks on the wrists.

A note on the asphyxiation thing; I think even a weaker person could realistically pull this off if they caught Arei by surprise. From what I understand, it’s difficult to meaningfully resist against strangulation from behind, so even if Arei is stronger than her killer, it’s a plausible method. However, I could be wrong about this. It might shock you to know this, but I'm not very well versed in the logistics of murdering people.

Also, you might say that that's insane. Why do all the mechanism stuff if they had already asphyxiated her unconscious? And while that is a very fair question, there is no way to eliminate it. Keep in mind Arei's wrists were bound at some point, but the mechanism was still used. No matter how the tape got around Arei's wrists, there will always be a time when the killer could have killed her in a very simple manner (eg stabbing her, strangling her, bludgeoning), and still chose to complicate the method.

There are a few reasons that could be, but I currently believe this is related to what Teruko brings up at the end of EP 13. The mechanism is similar to the one used to try to kill Ace. This way, the killer could point to the superficial similarities as a way to pin the blame on Nico. Or the killer straight up is Nico and they're just obsessed with this method for some reason lol.

Oh, also, Arei’s missing a glove. I assume the killer removed it to better apply the tape on the wrists and just… have it in their pocket, I guess. I really don’t know what to make of this thing.

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Side Note: The Ace Case

I said in my first reaction to EP13 that I would review the Ace case method. Since I don’t feel like making a separate post, I’ll tackle it here. We basically got one piece of evidence regarding this: Teruko believes there was either a hanging or a pulley involved.

Now, you might know this case is actually lot harder to figure out than the Arei one. The first time I tried to come up with a method, alongside venus-is-thinking, accirax and thebadjoe, we went kinda insane. There's a lot of really weird evidence in the short investigation we got, which led us to creating gym-wide wire circuits, crucifying Ace, giving Eden the turpentine, hypothesising about wire yo-yos and on-off switches for the fans, and who knows what else. As fun as that was, there was surprisingly little hanging and pulleying in that thread, and now that Teruko's implied the Arei method is somewhat similar to the Ace method, we might be looking at not-great answers.

And because this method is so difficult, I’m not very confident in the answer I’m about to give. I think it’s better than what I had before, but there’s still a few questions. I’m not too bothered by this though, since we’ll get answers in a few days anyways.

First thing to clear up: I firmly believe Nico did everything by themselves. The killer needed the turpentine to knock out Ace; Nico never denied taking the turpentine when accused, and straight up admitted they “made a serious attempt on Ace’s life.”

Rose: They even lied to and stole from me to commit murder. Out of everyone here, they’re the least innocent.

Nico: I—! I didn’t kill Arei! I swear!

Charles: But did you not intentionally try to make a serious attempt on Ace’s life? Answer honestly.

Nico: Y… Yes…

Then, when speaking about what they did, they always speak in first person singular, never giving any indication there was anyone else involved.

Nico: I didn’t… think about [the trial after the Ace thing]… I… I never should have… done that…

Not to mention they were in the gym, alone, with their cloak off, and they had the most motive for killing Ace. They’re the only person we know for sure had the opportunity to grab the turpentine, they said they were going to kill Ace before this happened, etc. You can certainly twist all of this in some way to make Nico not the sole culprit, and I respect those theories, but for me, the most compelling explanation is the one that makes the least amount of assumptions. That the guy that admitted to trying to kill Ace and implied they did it on their own, tried to kill Ace on their own. Occam’s Razor, and all that.

Plus, if there’s anyone else to blame, most people point to Hu. But…

Hu: It is not and never will be your decision as to what happens with our lives.

In my opinion, you have to read Hu’s character in really bad faith for her to try to kill someone and then say this. And look, I believe Eden!Culprit (eh, spoilers ig), so I’m no stranger to stretching certain lines of dialogue to fit The Agenda, but again, I have my limits. I’m going to stop believing Levi!Accomplice because of the lines up top, and these Hu lines are, in my opinion, way more damning for any theory about Hu genuinely trying to murder anyone than even those lines. Be it Hu!AceAttacker or even Hu!Culprit, I just can’t imagine a world where someone goes this hard against the idea of choosing who lives and dies after trying to kill people themselves, especially not Hu. Maybe she’s pretending or something, but unlike Eden, who could be twisting her words to make herself look innocent, Hu has no real reason to confront David like this. It reads to me like a 100% genuine emotional outburst.

Does it make me a hypocrite that I can’t believe Hu is lying, but I can believe Eden is disingenuous? Well, I don’t think so. Because part of the reason I think Eden’s words are less trustworthy in general is that Eden!Culprit has significantly more evidence than any theory about Hu trying to kill someone. No, really, as far as I can tell, there’s no physical evidence for either Hu!AceAttacker or Hu!Culprit. Maybe I’m wrong, though.

Yes, Hu’s wire is there, but Nico already stole one custom weapon from a friend, why wouldn’t they steal/borrow a second one? Even if they didn’t straight up ask for the wire, Hu claims she and Nico ate breakfast in Nico’s room, so it’s not difficult to assume Nico could have gone into Hu’s room at some point and gotten the wire that way. It’s also true Hu never calls them out on this, but that’s because she never saw the crime scene; even if she knows Nico had the wire, she probably wouldn’t immediately assume it was used in the murder.

Again, theories where Nico isn’t the sole culprit are perfectly valid, but I personally don’t believe them. I may get proven wrong by the end of the week, but oh well.

Aside from that, let’s make a quick recap of the evidence we have. Ace’s body and wounds; bloodstain on the wall; lone wire; fan wire; broken fan; moved benches; stool (brought from storage?); broom (pulled right out of Ace’s ass-); fallen weight rack; isolated weights; non-functioning fan; clean pull-up bar; Rose’s and Teruko’s account (Nico took the turpentine and used it to knock out Ace); banging noise; Nico’s missing cloak.

(Btw; I talk about the lone wire and the fan-wire as two completely separate things, since it makes things easier. Just assume Nico broke the wire before the murder attempt)

The first thing to note is that hanging Ace actually solves a particular point of contention from the first thread; Ace’s wounds. Because of the way Ace always grabs the front of his neck in the sprites after waking, some of us thought there were only injuries on the front. Meanwhile, others posited there were wounds all around Ace’s neck, based on the sprite and the blood on the wall.

But hanging offers an interesting middle ground. The wire tensing around Ace’s neck could cause injuries on both sides, but if Ace was slumped over, the injuries on the front would be deeper because gravity. I think? I’m no expert on hanging, might need Whit to confirm that one for me. But it’s conceivable, so I’ll go with it.

But we can’t just hang him simply. If you check the first thread, you’ll remember that by far the weirdest piece of evidence is the blood pattern on the wires. It stops and starts in weird places, as seen below:

This is difficult because it means the wire wasn’t continuously wrapped around Ace’s neck as you might expect. However, you might also remember one of the only explanations I have for the lone wire’s blood pattern; a noose pattern.

If the lone wire is tied in a way where Ace’s neck bleeds over the know but not the noose, the pattern is explained.

But how do we work a noose into the hanging? Well, a yo-yo. I’m kidding, but only kinda; you can put the noose around the isolated weights to weigh down Ace, making the hanging… more fatal? Look, I don’t know why Nico did half this shit, okay?

The big thing that’s left are the actual logistics of hanging Ace. It’s a lot harder than you might assume, and while I’m probably vastly overcomplicating it, I wanted to put the broom somewhere and this might be the bests place for it. So, taking inspiration from badjoe’s idea of using the broom to stabilize Ace, my own yo-yo theory, and venus-accirax’s general idea of crucifixion, I present to you:

A brand new murder diagram!

(Btw, didn’t mention it, but the fan can’t be spinning for this to work. Either there’s an off switch or Nico just broke it with the broom and then put it back more or less)

As you can see, the main trick is putting the broom across Ace’s jacket, going from one sleeve to the other stick-first, and then using the wires to lift it up (first the one on the pull up bar, then the one on the fan), wrapping them around Ace’s neck in the process. This allows Nico to keep Ace upright and with his neck as close to the ceiling as possible while putting the wires where they need to be. The lone wire is attached to the pull-up bar. Not pictured is the stool, which Nico probably needed to pull this off, btw.

After setting this up, it’s just a matter of pushing the broom out of Ace’s jacket. This would cause Ace to fall, tensing the wires (I’m hoping the pull-up bar is higher on the wall than it looks :v) and toppling the bench he was on. Sort of. The exact location of these things escapes me a bit.

After that… it’s possible Ace falling immediately caused the fan to fall, or the fan held for a moment, and this moment is when Nico got their cloak out of the gym. Maybe?

In any case, the fan collapses, the lone wire rips the tape out of the pull-up bar as it flies off, and Ace falls backwards. I’m hoping he’d be close enough to the wall to fall in a way that makes the back of his neck stain the wall with his blood.

When that happens, Nico starts to panic, grabbing the lone wire, putting the weights off to the side (I don’t know how they got there), and looking at Ace’s body just as Teruko and Eden enter the gym.

That’s more or less it. There’s obviously a few problems with this, and it’s probably significantly more complicated than the real answer, but it’s solid enough that some of it might be right. I just want to explain the blood on the wires, man.

One question is why the left fan isn’t spinning. This depends on how turpentine works in DRDT. If it emits fumes that you have to inhale for a while before passing out, Nico turning off the left fan (be it with an off switch or by breaking it with the broom) could be a way for them to make sure the fumes don’t dissipate. When Ace enters the gym, the turpentine could be open and hidden, in a way that after a while, Ace inhales all the fumes necessary.

However, it’s also possible turpentine works more like how chloroform is usually depicted. In that case, it’s possible Nico used their cloak as a rag to apply the turpentine, then took it out of the gym to avoid inhaling any fumes themselves.

Because i’m case you haven’t noticed, Nico’s cloak is sorta like Arei’s glove, in that I have no idea where they went, and thus can’t really imagine how they fit into everything.

What is with DRDT characters and mysteriously losing their clothes during murders?

It’s also physically dubious; not enough that I really think it’s 100% impossible, but still. And I have no idea what happened to the weight rack beyond “there might have been a struggle” (which only kinda works, those things are heavy), or why Nico put the weights there…

And I don’t know why Nico did any of this. My pal, please, just fucking stab him next time.

Is this right? Probably not, but I think the general idea is plausible. We’ll find out in a few days just how wrong I was about this, anyways.

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Alright, so for the big question.

Whodunnit?

There are a few important things to consider when it comes to a culprit theory. I’ll outline them here so you can judge your own picks for culprit based on my criteria, though obviously it might be different from yours. Personally, I believe any genuine theory on the culprit must account for the following things:

-Time of Body Manipulation: Because of the swinging and the marks on the wrists, which should fade quickly, Arei’s body must have been hung shortly before it was discovered. Since she’s assumed to have died at around 7:30 AM (yes, there are theories to the contrary, but I can’t address every single possibility here, so I’m just going to take the 7:30 AM time of murder as accurate since it’s what I believe), it’s assumed that’s the time the body was hung. The culprit should probably be someone without an alibi at the time, potentially clearing David, Veronika, J, Hu and Nico.

Potential Workarounds:

+Fake Alibi: Applicable mainly to Hu and Nico. But would either of them be willing to die for the other? Also, Nico agreed with Teruko that David was acting suspicious at the end of EP11. If they’re the culprit, casting doubt on David is a bad move. If they’re an accomplice and want the culprit to win, it’s a bad move. If they’re an accomplice and don’t want the culprit to win, they’d just say who the culprit is. There’s probably other examples like this, but that’s just off the top of my head.

I really don’t think Hu or Nico did this, in case you can’t tell :v

+Third Party: A third party could have hung the body after the murder. But given this third party can’t be David or Veronika (again assuming 7:30 AM as the time of death), and I genuinely don’t know who else would do this, I don’t find this likely.

-Time of Fish Disappearance: Nico claimed none of the fish were missing the last time they fed them, after having dinner the afternoon before the murder. At face value, and assuming Nico ate around the same time Hu and Eden did, the fish would have disappeared between 7 and 10 PM, as the relax room was closed between 10PM and 8AM. And judging from how Teruko talked about the situation at the start of the trial, it seems unlikely that the fish were taken after 8AM. This would mean Eden, Hu, Charles and Whit cannot have taken the fish without some workaround. J, Veronika, Teruko and Arturo have alibis starting at least at 7:30 PM, so maybe they could have taken them, maybe not.

Possible Workarounds:

+Early Nico Dinner: We don’t know when Nico ate dinner, and according to a quick Google search, Americans are fucking insane and, on average, eat dinner around 6:00~6:30 PM.

Genuinely what. I eat dinner at 9:00 PM usually and that’s on the low end of the spectrum for my country. When I’m with family, I eat at like 10:00~10:30 PM. Are you US dwellers good? Deeply unserious country, I tell you.

With that aside, you get the idea. If Nico ate dinner at that time, practically every alibi given goes out the window, except Charles and Whit I believe. This would mean Nico didn’t eat with Hu and Eden, but neither mentioned them in the original alibis, so take that as you will.

+Fake Alibis/Nico!Accomplice: A lot of these alibis are just two people. It’s not outright impossible Charles and Whit, Hu and Eden, or Arturo and J are working together for a fake alibi. Well, maybe not the last one :v Alternatively, getting Nico to lie about the amount of fish they fed would work; the fish could have gone missing before Nico claims they did. I don’t find this particularly plausible, but it’s an option.

+Third Party/Arei: Someone other than the killer brought the fish to the playground, be it Arei or a third party. Arei could be plausible if the note is fake in some way, as the killer could have invited Arei in person and asked for the fish that way, but I find that somewhat unlikely because why give the time if the letter’s fake?

+Fake Fish: The fish in the playground (or maybe the pond, but likely the playground) are fake, either artificial or maybe taken from the kitchen… if that even has minnows as food. Don’t know how this one would work frankly.

+Early Catch: The killer planned to use the fish to hide time of death since the moment they heard the relax room would be closed during nighttime, and put the fish in the jugs before Nico got a chance to count them. If Nico didn’t count them as soon as they saw them in EP2, but rather later, when they first fed them, this gives plenty of time for anyone to pull this off. The killer doesn’t need to have everything planned from the start, just the fish trick.

I wonder if the amount of workarounds I found for this reveals some kind of bias… Who knows.

-BDA Rule: Rule 10; “The BDA will play when three or more people who did not witness the murder discover the body.” This could potentially clear Teruko, Whit and Eden.

Possible Workarounds:

+Third (Fourth?) Party: Someone who did not witness the murder, other than the BDA trio, saw the body before Teruko opened the door to the playground. At this point in the trial, and with David and Veronika having alibis for the time between the murder and the discovery, I doubt this is the case. Do you see why I originally landed on accomplice theory btw, it literally offers a workaround for every potential problem.

+”See No Evil”: If the killer turned their backs after letting go of the spinny thing, and didn’t see the moment Arei’s neck snapped, they may not be considered a “witness.” This could have been intentional, with the killer taking advantage of Teruko’s idea to search in a group of three (and her bad luck of picking just the wrong person) to try and clear themselves; or unintentionally. The killer may have decided to look away just because they didn’t want to see the death. This is especially plausible if the killer felt genuinely bad about what they were doing, which is the most common interpretation of Eden!Culprit.

-Handwriting: The handwriting on the letter doesn’t match Charles’ (custom weapon list), Teruko’s (abomination she calls a list of revealed secrets), Whit’s (he dots the ‘i’s with hearts), or Eden’s (sample in the trial).

Possible Workarounds:

+Fake Handwriting: The handwriting on the note could be fake; Whit wouldn’t dot the ‘i’s with hearts, Charles would write differently. And notably, the sample Eden gives in the trial is in print, while the handwriting in the note is in cursive, so it wouldn’t take any effort for her to fake it.

-Purpose of the method: If the killer really emulated Nico’s method to frame them, they have to know what that method was in the first place. Maybe not figure it out 100%, but they at least need to see the gym to get a basic impression of what the method may have looked like. This would implicate Ace, Teruko, Eden, and possibly the Ace attacker if they’re not Nico. Nico themselves might have also repeated method… Because. Alternatively, the method could have been used for the “See No Evil” BDA workaround, possibly implicating Whit or Eden again.

Possible Workarounds:

+Doesn’t Matter: There is no purpose to the method. The killer chose a pulley system because. I doubt anyone genuinely likes this possibility :v

+Something I haven’t Thought About: What it says in the tin.

-The gym tape: The gym’s tape was still on the floor when Nico left the night of Ace’s attack. At this point, only Teruko, Eden and Ace were on the room. MonoTV then locks down the gym, meaning no one can come in. We see MonoTV open the gym the next morning, and Rose and Teruko are the first to enter. The tape was gone. That, combined with the tape’s sprite disappearing from the background around the time Ace gets up, would heavily imply the tape was taken by either Ace, Teruko or Eden. Since the tape later appears to have been used in the murder, this heavily implicates them.

Possible Workarounds:

+Eden the Unwitting Accomplice: The killer asked Eden to get the tape for them. However, this would mean that Eden would immediately know who the killer is the moment the tape gets identified. It doesn’t work to frame Eden, either, because at that point it’s her word (“[killer] asked me to get it for them!”) vs yours (“nuh uh”). And I don’t care who you are, people will trust Eden’s words over yours. It’s much safer to just get the tape yourself, and everyone has access to the gym. This is a pretty outlandish idea, in my opinion, unless you can come up with some other reason the killer would give Eden (or Ace) for picking up the tape.

+Eden or Ace took it for no reason and returned it later: No evidence of this.

+MonoTV Put it in Storage: Doesn’t explain the sprite disappearance, but even if you ignore that, there is no indication it did that.

+Rose Took it With Sleight of Hand: Why would she mention it to Teruko then. Just grab it, pocket it and shut up. I don’t think this works.

+It’s Not the Gym’s Tape on the Spinny Thing: Then, narratively, why would Rose bring attention to it when she goes to the gym with Teruko?

Alright, I believe that’s all the major things.

Probability Ranking

Zero Chance:

-MonoTV, Arei: There are rules against this.

-Xander, Min: Xander’s dead, Min’s in Mexico (/j).

-Teruko: Protag privilege. Also her handwriting sucks too much for her to fake the note.

-Charles: His necrophobia would prevent him from manipulating the body after killing Arei, which is necessary to string her up on the swing set.

First Assumption: The Murder Happened at 7:30 AM the Day of Body Discovery

Although this isn’t technically 100% confirmed yet, I personally find it really hard to believe that the time of death is different from this. This eliminates:

-David, Veronika, J: Alibis. They have no reason to cover for each other, so they’re out.

-Hu, Nico: I believe Hu is currently the most popular pick for blackened, and I cannot for the life of me figure out why. Yes, she could be lying about the alibi, but if Nico calls her out, it’s curtains. Is Nico really willing to die for Hu? Is Hu willing to kill everyone, including Nico, to escape? Conversely, if Nico’s the blackened, is Hu aware of what she’s doing by faking an alibi? I doubt it given EP12, so she’d be lying because she has faith in Nico. But, at present, I have no reason to believe that. “It’s plausible” isn’t evidence. Sorry, but I cannot for the life of me see Hu or even Nico as culprits anymore.

Second Assumption: MonoTV Didn’t Take the Tape from the Gym

Though technically an assumption, since there is zero evidence it did this, I’ll say it’s an assumption regardless. It leads to:

Third Assumption: The Killer Took The Tape

As stated, if it wasn’t MonoTV, it kinda has to be either Ace or Eden. If the killer didn’t take the tape, that means either they asked Ace/Eden for the tape beforehand (insane, it’s much safer to take the tape yourself) or Eden/Ace took the tape for some undisclosed reason, then someone else asked them for it. But since we don’t know what Eden or Ace would want the tape for other than murder, this also seems unlikely. Thus, assumption number three is assumed, and eliminates…

-Levi, Rose, Arturo, Whit, and all the prior characters (minus Teruko ig). Yes, I believe the tape works as a smoking gun in the same way that the building map worked as a smoking gun against Min.

Notably, all the new characters here also fail to explain why the method was unnecessarily complicated, since none of them know about the Ace murder method. The exception is Whit, where the purpose could be the “See No Evil” technicality, but that comes with a lot of assumptions itself, and there’s other problems with Whit!Culprit (namely, fish).

And Then There Were Two

Ace and Eden are, in my opinion, far and above the likeliest candidates for blackened in this case. Both of them have their issues as theories, but both have things going for them. Let’s compare and contrast!

Point for Eden: Starch on Clothes

One point that’s Eden specific is an idea originated from thebadjoe’s mind. Since starch can be used as fertilizer, it’s possible the starch holding the ball of clothes together came from the enriched formula used in the relax room. If this is the case, the clothes must have been left there in either the first or second night of the second chapter, as putting them there during the third night would make them inaccessible before the murder. And Eden was seen acting suspicious in the dressing room, where clothes are, on the second night.

Eden: W-Who’s there? I know you’ve been following me!

[…]

Eden: Oh, it’s just you, Teruko. What are you doing here?

Like, why’s she so paranoid?

This isn’t disqualifying for Ace, however, as he could have done this the very first night. Alternatively, it’s possible Teruko misidentified the starch. There’s just no evidence for it, as opposed to Eden doing the thing, where there is evidence for it.

Workaround Needed (Eden): “See No Evil”

Eden is part of the BDA crew, meaning there needs to be a workaround for Rule 10. If Levi’s not there to accomplice it up, then “See No Evil” is the only acceptable workaround in my eyes.

Now, I fully believe that, no matter what, Eden probably would turn her back the moment Arei’s neck snapped. She didn’t want to look at Xander’s eye wound, so it’s plausible she would just not want to look when Arei actually died. Which means we just need the “See No Evil” technicality to work from a rules standpoint.

And while it may be a sticking point for some people, I personally think that a combination of MonoTV’s incompetence and Teruko’s bad luck could cause this technicality to exist. Especially given:

Eden [Right before the BDA]: Teruko, wait—

This reaction is best justified by Eden!Culprit imo. If Eden’s the culprit, I don’t think she realized the “See No Evil” technicality. She couldn’t refuse to search with Teruko, obviously, that would make her too suspicious, but she still didn’t want Teruko to open the door because she thought the BDA wouldn’t play, as she would think she’d be counted as a witness. But who knows.

Point Against Eden: Eden’s Strength

By far the biggest sticking point against Eden!Solo under my murder method. She is canonically the weakest in the cast, and yet, she still needs to pull off four important feats of strength; throwing the ball of clothes, subduing Arei, pulleying her up, and hanging her body afterwards.

The thing is, even though Eden is “the weakest,” we… don’t have a good reference of how strong or weak she actually is. Eden’s still an adult woman, she doesn’t have to be hopelessly weak. So, how much do we have to suspend our disbelief on her strength?

Well, pulleys are powerful, and even though we are not dealing with an ideal pulley by any means, I think it’s reasonable Eden would be able to pulley Arei up. Obviously impossible to prove one way or the other, though. I also believe there’s a good argument that she’d be able to subdue Arei because, well…

Apparently, Eden’s a better fighter than any of us could have expected. If she’s able to rip out Xander’s eye with a fork, I think she’d be able to strangle Arei unconscious. Especially given there’s precedent for her making people fall to the ground by taking them by surprise.

(This is a silly point, but it exists)

The big ones are actually the ball of clothes and the hanging of Arei’s corpse on the swing set. Keep in mind she doesn’t just need to throw the ball of clothes (or something like it) over the rafters, but also do it with enough force to displace the lights. That’s kinda difficult. As for the hanging… well, that’s one of the reasons I started believing Levi!Accomplice in the first place, and why I put the broom where I did in the Ace method. It’s pretty difficult to tie a knot on the swing set with Arei as dead weight.

An accomplice does solve this, but with the recent insight we’ve gotten on Levi, I struggle to see anyone actually accomplice-ing it up, frankly.

Ace is stronger than Eden; in fact, he’s one of the stronger in the cast. He would have no issues doing all this, theoretically.

Well, physically, he’d have no issues. Intellectually…

Workaround Needed (Ace): Reason for Murder Method

But, hold on. I said that Ace, if he’s the killer, is probably using the mechanism to frame Nico, right?

Here’s the thing; that would imply he knows what Nico’s mechanism was. Or at least, has a vague idea. However, he was unconscious the entire time he was being attacked.

This would mean that after just waking up and with severe injuries, he managed to get a good enough look at the crime scene that he managed to figure out more or less what Nico did to him. And either he did that instantly, or he grabbed the tape for who knows what reason and later thought back and realized what happened to him.

Look, if Eden’s strength is a point against her, we also have to consider Ace’s intelligence. He is not figuring out what happened to him, and I struggle to think he’d even conceive of the idea of replicating Nico’s method to frame them.

That means he needs a different reason for doing the murder with the pulley method, and I can’t think of any. Not saying it doesn’t exist, just that it really does need a workaround that I am not able to find.

Workaround Needed (Eden): Fish Heist

As stated above, Eden desperately needs some way around the fact she has an alibi for the time the fish presumably disappeared. Here are the possible workarounds, and why they’re iffy.

+Early Nico Dinner: Unsatisfying to me, as I think it makes more sense for Nico to eat dinner with Hu and Eden, but one of the more plausible options. There’s a really tight time frame for Eden to grab the fish if Nico ate earlier, but it’s doable. It’s unfortunate we have no frame of reference for when Nico actually fed the fish.

If it helps, the fact that Eden and Hu’s alibi has such a specific start time (their dinner, 7:00 PM) could be because it’s going to be relevant, suggesting this might be the real answer.

+Fake Fish: No established way for Eden to pull this off. It’s possible, but there’s no evidence for it.

+Early Catch: One of the better answers, though it runs into a bit of an issue. It would mean Eden was planning around a murder the entire chapter. She doesn’t necessarily need to have the whole method in mind, just the trick with the fish, but she’s still gotta have been planning something. The problem is, in CH 2 EP 1, she says this:

Eden: If everyone else is feeling down in the dumps, then it’s my job to get their spirits back up! That’s how we’ll get out of here! By working together!

This is said to no one, she’s talking to herself. Which is very strange if she’s going to be grabbing fish for a potential murder just a few hours later.

There’s a few workarounds for this workaround’s issue, though:

*Eden could have grabbed the fish for non-murdery purposes. No idea what they’d be though, so that’s not great.

*She hadn’t decided to murder yet, but had it as a backup plan if she couldn’t find any other way to get out in the meantime. Uh… maybe? I struggle to see it, but it could work. She does talk about plans to escape a lot.

*The secrets spurred her into murdery action. Now, I really doubt Eden would kill to hide she’s a lesbian (not to dismiss the fact that everyone should be allowed to come out only when they’re ready, David), but there’s a detail learnt in chapter 13 that makes this workaround workaround more plausible: Veronika’s secret is not the worst thing she’s done. As a result, it’s not impossible that Eden has a worse secret than what Charles received, and MonoTV just didn’t pick it for some reason. This feels like a copout, frankly, but it’s technically plausible even if I don’t see any real evidence for it.

As you can see, the workarounds are far from perfect. However, it’s not just Eden who struggles with the fish.

Point Against Ace: Fish Paradox

It’s generally assumed the killer used the fish to make the cast believe the murder happened before nighttime, possibly between 7:30 PM and 10:00 PM specifically if they were banking on people finding the note. The problem is that Ace doesn’t benefit from this, as he has no alibi at that time. Getting the fish water is objectively harder than just getting water from the kitchen sink at nighttime or something, so why would he do it?

This is what we DRDT theorists* call the fish paradox. Any character who benefits from people thinking the murder happened before nighttime, only benefit because they have an alibi around 7:30-10PM. But assuming Nico fed the fish around 7:00 PM, that means they couldn’t have taken the fish. But if they could have taken the fish, that’s only because they don’t have an alibi around that time, which means they don’t benefit from taking the fish.

*Only I call it this. Don’t fall for my lies, there is no “we” :v

Ace falls into the second category: could have taken the fish in the time it’s assumed they were taken, but he doesn’t benefit from it. As a result, you need to give an alternate explanation for why the fish are there, and I can’t find one.

This paradox is what makes many, like me, believe there is some kind of trick around when the fish disappeared, be it an accomplice or some other workaround. Which lines up with Eden, but not Ace.

Workaround Needed (Eden): Handwriting

Straightforward, already explained it. She wrote in print during the trial, meaning the sample is unfit for comparison with the letter, written in cursive. I don’t think this is a problem.

You wanna know a bigger problem?

Point Against Ace: Teruko’s Live Reaction

This entire debate, the entire reason these two are the most likely culprits in my mind, is because they’re the only two who could have reasonably taken the tape from the gym, and the only real purpose of doing so would be murder.

But there’s a glaring issue. Logistically speaking, I find it almost impossible to believe Ace took the tape. Why? Because ever since the moment Ace woke up, logically, Teruko’s attention should have been on him. And since she’s the PoV character in that scene, if Ace grabbed the tape, we should have heard of it. Since we didn’t, Ace most likely didn’t.

It’s this point, more than any other, that makes me believe Eden is the culprit. The only way to make Ace!Culprit work taking this into account is assuming Teruko pulled the same thing she did with Arei’s body swinging; she saw it and didn’t say anything. But that’s different, because we actually saw the swinging ourselves as well; if Ace picked up the tape, and Teruko saw it, we should have gotten clarification.

Argument Bullet Round!

+Eden’s Newfound Plot Relevance: Some have claimed that the fact Eden is seemingly the one to have taken out Xander’s eye means she must remain alive for that plot point to remain relevant. However, uh, there’s another person in the pre-prologue scene where Xander loses an eye.

And that’s Xander.

Who’s dead.

If plot relevance didn’t save him, I doubt it’ll save Eden. If anything, DRDT has a habit of killing off characters the moment the overarching plot catches up to them.

+Heels: Hu mentions walking with heels in the playground can scuff the floor, and Ace wears heels (I think). However, walking on heels wouldn’t generate the scuff marks we saw, so I believe it’s a moot point.

+Not A “Good Person”: In this chapter, which has the hidden title “A Good Person”, Levi, Eden, Teruko, David, and Xander have been called “a good person.” Given the hidden title, it’s speculated this list is about characters who in some way tie into the themes of the chapter, so the blackened should be included. Ace has not ever been referred to as a “good person,” and I can’t see him being called that this late into the trial. Not the strongest argument, but it’s there.

+Motive: Much has been written about Eden’s potential motivations, but at least we know she has always had an interest in escaping the killing game one way or another. Additionally, it’s very possible Eden didn’t believe Arei actually meant what she said during the Arturo situation, as she wasn’t present during the playground breakdown where her secret was revealed; and might be regretting her murder now that there’s evidence she genuinely wanted to change. If you want a more detailed explanation, I suggest you read venus’ fantastic Eden!Culprit Narrative Defense and the “can Eden still be the culprit?” section of accirax’s ep 13 reactions (which also summarizes the relevant parts of the first post), which explain this idea in more detail.

Meanwhile, Ace… probably wants to escape as much as anyone else, but he’s not ultra pressed about it. No particular grudge against Arei, either. I can’t think of a good motive for him, but maybe there will be one revealed later in the trial.

+Thematic Connection: Arei and Eden are recap foils, obviously they have plenty of narrative and thematic connections to make this murder narratively meaningful. Meanwhile, while Ace and Arei are similar in some aspects, I can’t really think of any themes which could be meaningfully explored with him as the killer. That might be the bias talking though lol.

And more but I think I’ve made my point.

So, despite everything, I still believe Eden is the culprit. Maybe our girl is stronger than we expected?

Conclusion

I still think Eden!Culprit is the most likely option we have, just that I now consider Eden!Solo more likely than Levi!Accomplice. That said, even with the things I brought up at the start, I’d say Levi!Accomplice is still more likely than Ace!Culprit, while Ace!Culprit is massively more likely than the third most likely culprit. Who is… I don’t know, Whit?

There’s been a few changes to accommodate the things discussed in the trial: Arei got splashed with water at some point, the rope was tied to a handlebar instead of there being a stopper, and the grippy tape was so the rope wouldn’t slide off.

Aside from that, there’s been a few modifications to my theory to accommodate Eden!Solo. Using the reveal of Eden ripping out Xander’s eye as a basis, I think Eden would realistically be able to strangle Arei unconscious by ambushing her, and potentially strong enough to pull off everything else she needs to, though I get how that may be a point of contention. Eden must have also faked her handwriting in the trial, looked away in the moment of death to cause the “See No Evil” technicality, and something’s fishy with the fish. Either she grabbed them day one, or Nico had an earlier dinner than expected; at this point, I think it’s impossible to tell.

The changes for the Ace-Nico thing were outlined in full earlier, all that’s left in that front is to see how wrong I am about it this Friday! :D

All in all, there haven’t been as many changes as I expected. In fact, the majority of this post is just me repeating stuff I already brought up in other posts, but applied to more people. Hope it doesn’t feel like I talked more than necessary.

Anyways, thanks for reading! If you made it this far, you deserve to treat yourself and buy a cute clock that you like! See ya’!